Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 19.851832 21.517688 23.312550 25.399522 27.771288 30.397023 33.543439
2025-08-31 16.974410 19.211932 21.784401 24.996299 28.950542 33.729845 40.055573
2025-09-07 15.003875 17.547262 20.621712 24.686439 30.038201 37.027095 47.178340
2025-09-14 13.591288 16.314920 19.743326 24.497617 31.131740 40.422655 55.168546
2025-09-21 12.432673 15.237214 18.884731 24.146884 31.863493 43.362617 63.189077
2025-09-28 11.931599 14.936998 18.980213 25.063063 34.480575 49.539130 78.208936
2025-10-05 11.186767 14.223927 18.413370 24.919261 35.425574 53.206976 90.037716
2025-10-12 10.574531 13.632440 17.946134 24.841609 36.424338 57.130745 103.839648
2025-10-19 10.151712 13.267381 17.761941 25.160576 38.107109 62.650581 123.614371
2025-10-26 9.665964 12.770681 17.330481 25.018180 38.936014 66.683539 141.879943
2025-11-02 9.201409 12.270901 16.849316 24.731622 39.440912 70.149937 160.641734
2025-11-09 8.848314 11.912713 16.556617 24.727109 40.469930 75.021724 187.049068
2025-11-16 8.465026 11.491708 16.142825 24.485459 41.031948 79.074583 214.540652
2025-11-23 8.115352 11.102691 15.753740 24.250302 41.578528 83.290967 247.093058
2025-11-30 7.796441 10.743546 15.388355 24.021447 42.105299 87.648965 285.678835
2025-12-07 7.518213 10.432965 15.081904 23.871187 42.781668 92.669193 335.084977
2025-12-14 7.231057 10.093215 14.704056 23.547665 43.016149 96.509743 384.829907
2025-12-21 7.170888 10.113403 14.938830 24.437506 46.247578 110.992058 543.776452
2025-12-28 6.947764 9.856315 14.674604 24.302134 46.961147 117.460068 662.148149
2026-01-04 6.749456 9.630485 14.451287 24.228765 47.823786 124.909465 826.843727
2026-01-11 6.620575 9.513324 14.413491 24.536970 49.746237 137.481835 1151.109629
2026-01-18 6.435721 9.293700 14.177190 24.400022 50.442969 145.469138 1488.092432
2026-01-25 6.242718 9.052318 13.888095 24.123876 50.710155 151.805364 1889.548449